Home Prices across America are up by 20-30% over the last year across many states. Real Estate Markets across Idaho, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida have some of the highest appreciation.
Unfortunately, the underlying economic growth in these regions is not keeping up with prices. Only 4 states in America have registered positive job growth since the pandemic. Meanwhile, wages and incomes are only up by 4-6% across most states.
This means that local workers in the hottest US Housing Market – in Florida’s Real Estate Market, in Arizona – are priced out of the housing market and cannot afford to buy a home. It’s likely that inbound migration of wealthy California buyers, along with investor speculation, is keeping these housing markets afloat.
But what happens in a year or two when real estate investor speculation goes down and migration returns to normal? It’s like that the MEGA BUBBLE in these 5 STATES could burst.
5) New York – home values across New York aren’t up by as much as other states in 2021-22. However, the local economy is arguably the worst in America, with jobs across New York down by nearly 8% from pre-pandemic levels. New York’s Housing Market could be in store for a decade of home price declines.
4) Florida – while Florida’s economy is strong on a relative basis, home values are up by 27% YoY while wages are only up by 5%. That means locals across Tampa, Miami, and Jacksonville are getting priced out of the market. Meanwhile, jobs in Florida are still below February 2020 levels.
3) Arizona – Home values in Arizona, especially in Phoenix, are up by over 30% on the year. The local economy in Arizona is strong, but does not support this type of price growth, especially when wages are only up 4% in the same time span.
2) Idaho – arguably America’s biggest Housing Bubble is in Boise. Home prices here are up 40%, while statewide they’re up 33%. But wages are just up 6%, meaning that many locals are being forced to leave Idaho to find cheaper living options elsewhere.
1) Nevada – this state is special. No other state in America has such high home value appreciation (27%) while having such a lackluster underlying economy. Jobs in Nevada are down by nearly 5% since the pandemic, meaning that there is still as jobs recession present. Worse – wages are only up 3.6% in the last year, indicating that local Nevada workers – particularly in Las Vegas – are priced out of the market.
What happens when the wealthy California buyers and investors subside in these markets?
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0:00 Home Builders are DOING IT AGAIN
1:49 1.5 Million Homes Under Construction (RECORD HIGH)
3:24 Home Prices Hit ALL-TIME HIGH in 2022
4:45 Housing Bubble Peak in 2022 (Case Shiller & Census Data)
6:22 But…aren’t We 5 MILLION Homes Short?
7:34 Overbuilding in South (Texas, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina)
8:58 West Coast Housing Markets (California, Idaho, Utah) look Pretty BAD
10:26 America’s Demographic Decline Continues
11:30 Why is Housing Inventory So LOW in 2022?
12:56 The Million Dollar Question…
13:57 The Housing Crash Will Occur WHEN THIS HAPPENS
15:20 Want More Housing Market Data?